China taps ex-officials to discern Trump’s aims, US elections

BEIJING/WASHINGTON – A pair of former Chinese diplomats visited the US in June to better understand the Trump administration’s stance on a fragile trade truce, according to people familiar with the matter, as China seeks to gauge how upcoming US elections might affect ties.

Former ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai and ex-deputy UN representative Geng Shuang were among former and current Chinese officials who turned to American experts – including those previously with the Trump administration – in recent months to discern the White House’s intentions towards its adversary.

Their visit underscores how much uncertainty remains around the truce the two sides signed in late 2025 and China’s concern that President Donald Trump may renege or refuse to deliver on some of its key components. 

Cui and Geng met US-China policy experts across the political spectrum, people familiar with the matter said.

It was also an exploratory visit ahead of more high-level talks in the run-up to the next Trump-Xi summit in the US expected around Sept 24.

The two no longer have government roles but may be conduits to President Xi Jinping’s government.

At around the same time, China experts from the US visited Beijing to meet current and former Chinese officials across a range of government ministries and state-affiliated think tanks.

The Americans were asked about the US midterm elections in November and presidential vote in 2028, according to a person who attended, who requested anonymity to discuss private meetings.

In response to questions from Bloomberg News, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said more exchanges between China and the US are in line with the consensus of Xi and Trump.

“We hope that the US will work in the same direction and work with China to promote exchanges and cooperation between the two countries across all sectors and enrich the content of a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability,” a spokesperson said.

The person who attended the discussions in Beijing said there was a consensus that the trade truce will be extended at least until the end of Trump’s term, with a “golden period” in ties possible until 2029.

“Chinese officials are confident the truce can last, but confidence is not the same as certainty,” Da Wei, director of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said at a forum in Beijing.

Da was recently in New York, where he said the mood among American scholars was “more pessimistic” than in China.

“Many people are asking how long this stability or truce can last,” he said. “My question is: Is this a truce or stability that is based on the goodwill of the two leaders or are there structural factors that shape this stability?”

The May summit yielded some progress on trade, with China agreeing to buy at least US$17 billion (S$21.9 billion) of US farm goods through 2028 and both countries pledging to reduce levies on certain products.

A visit by Foreign Minister Wang Yi or other senior officials to Washington may also be in the cards.

Wang spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by phone in early July, urging the US to handle issues around Taiwan with “extra prudence.”

“Given that President Xi will be coming to visit in September, it’s logical that there’d be some high-level contact in the next month or so,” said Fudan University’s Wu Xinbo, who previously served as an adviser to the Chinese government.

Wu added that momentum should pick up on agreed economic mechanisms – namely a board of trade and a board of investment – to ensure the two leaders have a substantive deliverable for their summit.

Still, recent economic security measures launched by both sides pose risks to the latest iteration of the trade truce in May, calling into question the deal’s durability.

China imposed export controls against two US rare earth producers that are part of Washington’s effort to reduce dependence on Beijing.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon accused some of China’s biggest companies, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, Baidu Inc and BYD Co, of supporting the Chinese military, labelling them as threats to US national security.

China’s launch of a long-range missile in the Pacific has also drawn swift pushback from the US and several regional players including Australia.

“I’m not sure I’ve seen the Chinese this confident in some time – maybe ever,” said Dan Kritenbrink, partner at The Asia Group and former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

“If an overconfident China were to miscalculate in how best to manage President Trump, then I think the risk of their overplaying their hand and sparking frustration on his part is real as well.” BLOOMBERG